Hey, everybody’s doing it, why not me? What follows is absolutely armchair conjecture.
- Android 4.0 will roll out more slowly than expected, and only the wealthy and technorati will be able to enjoy it. The Nexus is $299 with a contract, only on Verizon.
- Sprint will continue its unlimited data plan for 4G users and its network won’t break a sweat–this year.
- Verizon will continue to have issues with data until sometime mid-year.
- School districts will buy Makerbots.
- More schools will drop Microsoft Office in favor of free Google Docs, OpenOffice, or StarOffice.
- Adoption of Node.js will accelerate greatly, resulting in high-paying in-demand jobs for Nodesters.
- Node will be ported to Android, Arduino, and other devices and enable a new generation of apps based on the possibility of servers on phones, mesh networks, and SETI-like distribution of computing to mobile. Those possibilities will be explored but won’t become significant for a few years.
- iPhone 5 will change everything again. I really hate to leave iPhone, but I’m looking forward to checking out the Android universe. The iPhone 5 will likely suck me back over to the dark side (walled gardens are dark to me).
- The angel funding boom will subside as investors start to experience what happens when seed-stage funding runs out and founding teams scramble for bridges to nowhere.
- This will create opportunities for early-stage venture funds, which will have had a lot of their homework done for them in the seed rounds and inevitable thinning of the herds.
- There will continue to be more venture capital placed than makes sense because of the perverse incentives created by the 2/20 model.
- Liquidation preferences will swing back toward investors a bit, from 1x non-participating to 1x participating, as last year’s crop of seeds compete for the next round.
- We’ll start to find out how well 500 Startups picks startups. My guess is it will outperform the general seed stage market, but its success rate will trail Y-Combinator and Tech Stars simply because of the number of startups it funds . This year, anyway. (Performance means follow-on round of funding without cramming down founders 🙂
- I’ll finally ship Jawaya, rename it, and get some decent traction, and I will close a seed round by May.
- I’ll also ship one of my side projects in Q1.
- I might even finish the damn book.
- I’ll blog less, and comment less at other blogs.
- Fake Grimlock will be Fred Wilson’s first guest poster for MBA Mondays, which starts tomorrow. Cat’s out of the bag, Grimmy.
- Microsoft will move Steve Ballmer to Chairman and make a products VP the new CEO–likely someone from the Enterprise side.
- Microsoft will deeply subsidize Windows Phone carrier deals to boost share.
- The US will see its first sub-$50 tablet.
- Facebook will continue to grow, but more and more people will use it less and join other social networks like Path that enable private social networking.
- Chime-in will not become a major player in the social space; it will likely be acquired by an AOL, Microsoft, or Google and not Facebook or Twitter.
- Google might acquire Clear. Here’s hoping.
- The term “Hyperweb” will not catch on, largely because it’s an unnecessary fabrication of a couple of venture capitalists looking to position themselves as visionary leaders. Internet-enabled devices will become more ubiquitous, but won’t require a new category.
- The overall economy will continue its upward trajectory, but without manufacturing jobs the middle class will continue to struggle with its debt overhang.
- Unemployment will be under 7.5% by the election next year, which Obama will win.
- The Republican nominee will be Mitt Romney, who has likely already cut deals to get there.
- Christie will not be his running mate; it’s likely he’ll choose a social conservative to keep the dollars flowing from the right, possibly the governor of South Carolina.
- Education funding in PA will be cut again, resulting in larger class sizes, fewer electives, and reduced after-school support for urban students.
- The state will do nothing about the pension crisis, leading to massive layoffs of teachers within 3 years.
- Arnold Waldstein will launch a startup that mixes community and wine.
What are your predictions?